Theresa May has called a snap general election for June 8 so, for politics geeks like me, the next six weeks is like our World Cup. As with football, elections present many opportunities for a bet to make it even more exciting and I want to examine some of those. It might even give readers an edge to make a profit!
Most Seats is the most popular market for general election betting. You are predicting which party will win the most seats in the House of Commons, regardless of who forms the Government. Polling organisation ICM are giving the Conservatives an 18 – 20 point lead which is even higher than Tony Blair’s 15 – 16 lead when he won the famous 418 seat Labour landslide in 1997.
The odds are around 1/16 for Conservatives to win most seats, meaning £100 would return only £106.25. For the risk averse, that’s a better interest rate than keeping it in the bank for six weeks. Even Conservatives to form Next UK Government at 1/6 is an almost certainty, giving £116.67 back for £100 gambled.
Other buying-money bets I like are Theresa May to be Prime Minister After General Election at 1/10, and no in the Hung Parliament yes/no market at 1/12.
The vote percentage market offer greater odds and is a chance to make a real profit. Punters are estimating the total national votes for a party, rather than seats gained. Polling data provides a sort of form and the result isn’t skewed by the Britain’s peculiar first-past-the-post voting system.
Labour are currently around 25% in the polls, but I think that will increase if they have a coherent message for the course of the campaign. Their main challenger for working class support, UKIP, are in disarray and gaff prone leader Paul Nuttall lacks the charisma of its former demagogue leader Nigel Farage.
Labour must surely also capitalise on Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron’s previous comments regarding LGBT rights. Many progressives who are weary of a hard Brexit will balk at supporting Lib Dems with Farron at the helm.
With this in mind I like a Labour Vote Percentage of 25-30% at 9/4, returning £325 for £100 staked. The next Prime Minister will never be Jeremy Corbyn, but I can’t see the Labour vote collapsing as dramatically as many commentators are suggesting.
UKIP have no real purpose in British political life after the Brexit vote and their policies are really no different to the Conservatives. Their high of a 12.5% vote share in 2015 is unlikely to be repeated. A UKIP Vote Percentage of 5-10% looks a solid bet at 6/4 giving you £250 for your £100.
For politics geeks like myself, the last three years have been compelling, with major votes every year. The majority of the population is, quite frankly, sick to the back teeth of it. Unless something really interesting happens to catch the general public’s attention, the 2015 high watermark of 66.1% voter turnout won’t be repeated. It could even dip below the 59% figure in 2001.
8/1 for 55.01 – 60.0% in the Registered Voter Turnout market seems like an amazingly good value bet. After the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014, the 2015 General Election, the 2016 EU Referendum and the upcoming local authority elections on May 4, the public will be suffering from a serious case of voter fatigue.
The Nationalist parties are going to be fighting hard in this election. Both the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales are pro-EU and are using the Brexit vote to advance their agenda. The SNP will find it hard to emulate the success of 2015 where they won 56 of 59 Scottish constituencies, they are de-facto incumbents in Scotland.
Although they are likely to lose a couple of seats in SNP/Labour marginals, I like their chances in the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale constituency. David Mundell is the incumbent there is the only Conservative MP north of the border and it looks like the Greens will stand aside to give Nicola Sturgeon’s party the best chance of removing him. At the time of writing, it’s a little early for the individual seat winner market, but when the bookies open it up, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale will warrant close inspection to see if there is value.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru are lead by the likable Leanne Wood and seem to be providing the only real option for 47.5% in Wales who backed Remain. They currently have three seats in Westminster. That is certain to increase with 4 or above in the Total Seats – Plaid Cymru market at 8/13, returning £161.54 for £100 a shrewd investment.
A week is a long time in politics, but in my experience the betting markets can be slow to react. Political betting is often seen as a novelty. It was Pierre Trudeau, former Prime Minister of Canada and father of the current Prime Minister Justin who said “The essential ingredient of politics is timing” and timing is how the profit will be made with political betting.
I’ll be keeping an eye out for other interesting and good value markets during the campaign and the local elections on May 4 will provide form for the shrewd, so please tweet me with your thoughts and observations.