Back in 2017, a few weeks before the general election I wrote a blog post titled “Political betting for the 2017 UK General Election” for people like me who enjoy politics and the occasional flutter. I made recommendations for bets that were good value in my opinion. I’ve republished it here.

I found the post earlier today when I as going through some old files. It was published April 19th, 51 days before the result was known. As I have an hour to kill while I wait for Love Yoga Crew to teach her class, I though I would look up the results and see how much I would have lost.

I’ll list each bet here and calculate returns to a £100 stake. These fantasy bets would have needed to be singles due to related contingency.

• Conservatives to win the most seats @ 1/16 – win
• Conservatives to form the next UK government @ 1/6 – win
• Theresa May to be Prime Minister After General Election @ 1/10 – win
• Hung Parliament, no @ 1/12 – lose
• Labour vote percentage 25-30% @ 9/4 – lose
• UKIP vote percentage of 5-10% @ 6/4 – lose
• Registered voter turnout 55.01-60.0% @ 8/1 – lose
• Total seats – Plaid Cymru, 4 or above @ 8/13 – won

So that’s a total stake of £800 which would have returned… £494.46. A loss of £305.54. I didn’t actually lose that money, just so we are clear. It was a just a game.

I’m not going to make excuses gambling is a mugs game and you should only bet what you can afford to lose. What I will do though is try and find an explanation for how I went so wrong.

I think the biggest contributing factor was Jeremy Corbyn’s excellent performance. He was the Labour Party’s leader and seemed to capture the mood of young people perfectly.

This article from The Guardian explains how Corbyn manage to use the energy of a disaffected youth to increase his turnout and make the election a real contest. Labour we polling 25% at the time I made the prediction of 25-30% vote share but he smashed that with an eventual share of 40%. His support also increased the total turnout and ruined my low turnout prediction.

In retrospect, his (open secret) Brexity credentials convinced many UKIP voters to return to Labour and didn’t seem to put off remainers. I had thought that UKIP’s vote share would tumble, but to go from 12.6% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2017 is ridiculous.

The final loser is the one I’m most unhappy with. The result was technically a hung parliament as the Conservatives only managed to get 317 seats out of the 326 seats needed for a majority, which killed my 1/12 hung parliament, no prediction. The thing is, Conservative leader Theresa May managed to arrange a confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party who are basically the Northern Irish wing of the Conservative Party. Rules are rules though and the bet was a loser.

Leaving a political party is never an easy decision to make, especially if you have invested a considerable amount of time and effort into it. However, sometimes, there are compelling reasons for making such a move. In my case, I recently made the decision not to renew my membership to the Scottish National Party and join the Scottish Green Party.

Firstly, let me be clear that my decision to leave the SNP was not one that I took lightly. I joined the party because of its commitment to Scottish independence, and I campaigned for this cause. However, in recent years, I have become increasingly disillusioned with the party’s direction and leadership. I believe that the SNP has become too focused on securing a second independence referendum at any cost, to the detriment of other important issues facing Scotland, such as climate change and social justice.

The Green Party has long been a champion of environmental and social justice issues, and I believe that these are the most pressing issues facing Scotland and the world today. The Green Party’s commitment to tackling climate change is particularly impressive, and I am proud to be part of a party that takes this issue seriously. I also appreciate the Green Party’s commitment to grassroots democracy and community engagement, which I believe are essential for building a fairer and more sustainable Scotland.

I have been impressed by the passion and integrity of co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie, as well as the other MSPs and party members. I feel that the Green Party is a party that is truly committed to working for the common good, rather than simply seeking power for its own sake.

I appreciate the Scottish Green Party’s commitment to working with other parties and groups to achieve common goals. I believe that it is essential for political parties to work together, particularly on the left and with issues as important as climate change and social justice. The Green Party’s willingness to collaborate with other parties and groups is a refreshing change from the tribalism and divisiveness that often characterizes Scottish politics.

My decision to leave the Scottish National Party and join the Scottish Green Party was not an easy one, but it was the right one for me. I believe that the Green Party offers a clear and positive vision for the future of Scotland, one that is based on environmental and social justice, grassroots democracy, and collaboration. I am excited to be part of a party that is working towards a better future for Scotland and the world.

This is amazing. I enjoy spring onions, I always have them on my butties or in my salads.

I found out a couple of weeks ago that you can recycle them. Just chop off the green top bit and use it, then put the white bulb bottom bit in water and leave it.

It will start growing again and you can just chop off the green bits when it’s big enough. Apparently you can do this eight times.

I’ve been doing it and all my spring onions have been free for the last week. Just what you need in cozzy livs!

Happy St George’s Day everyone. I’ve seen a lot of “Proud to be English” posts today. Am I proud to be English? It’s an interesting question. I am English of course, and there are many benefits to that. It’s a universal language, and a lot of people in the World speak it. We have some lovely towns and cities, and I’ve had the pleasure of visiting many of them. St Ives is one of my personal favourites, go there :).

My heart and soul is based in the Manchester area. It’s where I grew up. It’s where my children were born, and it is just plain awesome. I have lived in Scotland for almost eight years, and I love it here. It is truly my home. It’s welcoming, multicultural and just plain fantastic.

Being English comes with so many negative connotations too. We get a bad reputation abroad generally, due to a minority of bad eggs. Sadly, it’s usually the racist and generally prejudice who spout being “Proud to be English” and spoil it for the rest of us.

I’m proud to be me, and I feel privileged to be English, but am I proud, I honestly don’t know.